Introduction
Donald Trump’s recent re-election as President of the United States has come as both a shock and a concern for a large part of the international community. As today’s modern legal issues demand the serious attention of world leaders, the US enters these next four years under the leadership of a morally ambiguous President. This article will thus look at a broad range of global issues relevant to today’s delicate world order, and how it will be affected by Donald Trump’s second term as President. This includes legislation around climate change, international human rights law, and international humanitarian law.
Climate Change and the Paris Agreement
The US is currently a member of the Paris Agreement, a legally binding agreement which aims to limit global warming below 2°C with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, and to promote sustainable development. 1
Trump seceded from the Paris Agreement in his first Presidential term. However, after his loss in the 2020 elections to current President Joe Biden, the US re-entered the agreement immediately and thus rejoined the fight against climate change.
Although the US has arguably not made many significant contributions to the issue and has, in fact, made it easier for big oil corporations to continue causing widespread environmental damage, its involvement in such an agreement still makes it legally responsible for such actions.2 Under the Trump administration, this possibility is taken away.
Trump has indicated plans to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement upon assuming office again. In fact, Trump’s campaign has largely criticized the Paris Agreement, not for being insufficient in its environmental protection, but for its unfair economic burden on the US. 3 As the US is a large, powerful state and thus a major contributor to the Paris Agreement, an exit could mean a stark decrease in the agreement’s effectiveness. Moreover, after this exit, Trump plans to roll back on environmental regulations nationally. 4
International Human Rights Law
While the US has fewer human rights obligations than countries like the Netherlands they still are legally bound to several basic human rights as outlined in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). 5 The US has been legally bound to the obligations in this instrument for 32 years. 6
For example, Article 25(b) of the ICCPR protects the right to vote for citizens. As seen in the past, Trump has been caught trying to illegally obtain votes in the 2020 election by calling Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in an attempt to pressure him into altering the state's vote tally. 7 Moreover, according to the federal court, he not only failed to publicly condemn the January 6th attacks on Capitol Hill, but also conspired to commit election fraud in inciting the mob with statements made that morning. 8 As the right to vote is instilled to protect democracy, Trump’s past actions reflect his stark disinterest in the issue.
Furthermore, the human rights of women have been threatened by Trump and Project 2025. Project 2025 is a comprehensive policy framework made by conservative Think Tanks that Trump is closely associated with. In his last presidency, the US Supreme Court - of which three out of the nine judges were appointed by himself- decided to overturn the landmark decision of Roe v. Wade9 , which secured abortion rights for women all over the country. Since then, many states such as Alabama and Texas have imposed near-total abortion bans. 10 Project 2025 aims to create more heavy restrictions on abortions, including a stark increase in surveillance systemswith the goal of reporting all abortions and miscarriages for criminal investigation. 11 General policing of women’s bodies to the detriment of their health -and of their lives- therefore has the potential to violate the right to health for women.
The US’s international legal obligations are rather limited regarding this issue. Notably, the US has not ratified CEDAW or the ICESCR, two significant instruments giving provisions on the matters of health and equality. 12 However, it has ratified the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), in which Art. 24 obligates State parties to ensure that children and their mothers enjoy the highest attainable standard of health.13 In states with heavy abortion bans, maternal death rates have sky-rocketed, a number which also disproportionately affects Black women in the country. 14
Furthermore, the surveillance systems introduced by Project 2025 have been said to violate Art. 17 of the ICCPR on the right to privacy. 15 In states such as Texas, many are saying this right has been threatened, as they have already imposed this surveillance on its female citizens.16
Therefore the ICCPR and CRC will face significant challenges from the upcoming administration. Despite this election being a major win for US citizens who do not uphold these values nor understand the impact that they have on their day-to-day lives, it poses a serious threat to international human rights law as a whole.
International Humanitarian Law
Of the many ongoing controversial armed conflicts in the world, the Israel-Gaza war and the Russia-Ukraine war have received ongoing attention from the international community concerning recurring IHL violations.
Israel-Gaza
Starting in October of 2023, there have been multiple United Nations statements and UN Security Council decisions describing the grave risk to Gazan citizens and the violation of IHL, including genocide and war crimes such as the violation of the principle of distinction. 17 The principle of distinction is a general principle of IHL and is considered customary law. 18 Thus, all States are legally obligated to uphold it.
The US, a major supporter of Israel, has continued to supply weapons and intelligence to Israel under the Biden administration.19 Trump will likely continue this agenda. It was reported that “Trump would give Israel a freer hand than Biden, who has pressured the Netanyahu government to be more precise in its attacks. Biden has called Israel’s bombing ‘indiscriminate’ and has said that its conduct has been’“over the top.’”.20 This reflects the wording of many human rights NGOs such as Human Rights Watch which condemn Israel for its violations of the principle of distinction.21 Trump plans to forgo these concerns for his own conservative agenda.
However, he has also been inconsistent with his general stance, as he and his “Republican allies in Congress have…frustrated the pro-Israel community” by blocking the emergency transfer of 14.1 billion dollars to the Israeli defense fund.22 He also seeks to convert this grantinto a loan for Israel to pay. 23 Nevertheless, US-made weapons will likely still supply Israel and their violations to IHL, whether they are provided by a Democrat or Republican President. 24
Russia-Ukraine
Trump has sustained controversial ties with the Kremlin during his past Presidential term, a connection which has been continuously scrutinized by both European leaders and American politicians. 25 President Joe Biden has supported Ukraine by sending weapons and financial support overseas.26 However, under the Trump administration, this strong tie to the Ukrainian defense could be under threat, as Trump’s past policy on Russian aggression in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion “was characterized by … an unprecedented lack of transparency”.27
It has been recognized by the UN that Russia’s actions in Ukraine were unlawful, specifically violating the customary prohibition on aggression and unlawful use of force under Art. 2(4) of the UN Charter. 28 Since then, heavy sanctions have been imposed by the international community in reaction to such a grave violation of IHL. Trump plans to “end” the Ukraine war, and precipitate an immediate negotiation within 24 hours of taking office by
Nevertheless, his past policies on Ukraine during his 2016-2020 presidency are characterized by “incoherence” due to his lack of “experience and knowledge of domestic politics and foreign policy” according to academic scholars. 30 Moreover, in a 2019 impeachment inquiry, Trump faced allegations of withholding military aid to Ukraine to pressure its government into investigating Joe Biden while running for the 2020 elections. 31
As Russia’s actions in Ukraine directly violate the prohibition on aggression and Art.2(4) of the UN Charter, Trump’s inconsistent decisions regarding Russia’s unlawful actions in Ukraine before and after the 2022 invasion reflect a questionable respect for international humanitarian law as a unified entity.
Conclusion
These violations are only a few of the many issues Trump aims to address in his upcoming presidency. For example, the use of nuclear weapons and diplomatic protection under the VCDR. 32 This constant infringement of international legal values and morals continues to threaten different sectors of international law. Attacking from all sides, the Trump administration aims to go against the standards that the international community has upheld for decades. As the US continues to dominate at the global scale, the international community should be aware of the threats to international law that this poses.
As a US citizen, this recent election has had a profound impact on me and my family who still live there. As a woman, this outcome also continues to threaten my physical and mental well-being. And as a student of international law, I cannot ignore the repercussions this presidency will have on today’s most pressing legal issues. Given the inextricable link between politics and law, Trump’s presidency will raise real issues within the legal world, and force the international community to confront the grandiosity of the US’s power as a state, led by a staunchly conservative leader.
1 Paris Agreement (adopted 12 December 2015, entered into force 4 November 2016) Art 2
2 Joe Hernandez, 'Willow Oil Drilling Project in Alaska is Approved' (NPR, 13 March 2023) accessed 14 November 2024.
3 Ben Lefebvre and Zack Colman, 'Trump Would Withdraw US from Paris Climate Treaty Again, Campaign Says' (Politico, 28 June 2024) accessed 14 November 2024.
4 Associated Press, 'Trump Set to Drastically Roll Back Climate Change Initiatives' (Inc., 7 November 2024) accessed 14 November 2024
5 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (adopted 16 December 1966, entered into force 23 March 1976) 999 UNTS 171
6 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) accessed 14 November 2024.
7 Lori Robertson and others, 'Indictment Details Trump’s Attempt to Overturn Swing State Election Outcomes' (FactCheck.org, 2 August 2023) accessed 14 November 2024
8 18 USC § 2383 (2018) (USA)
9 Roe v Wade, 410 US 113 (1973).
10 Center for Reproductive Rights, 'After Roe Fell: Abortion Laws by State' (Center for Reproductive Rights)
11 Guttmacher Institute, 'How Project 2025 Seeks to Obliterate Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights' (Guttmacher Institute, October 2024)
12 Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (adopted 18 December 1979, entered into force 3 September 1981) 1249 UNTS 13; International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (adopted 16 December 1966, entered into force 3 January 1976) 993 UNTS 3.
13 Convention on the Rights of the Child 1989, art 24.
14 Elyssa Spitzer, Tracy Weitz, and Maggie Jo Buchanan, 'Abortion Bans Will Result in More Women Dying' (Center for American Progress, 2 November 2022)
<https://www.americanprogress.org/article/abortion-bans-will-result-in-more-women-dying/> accessed 14 November 2024.
15 'Project 2025: The Right-Wing Wish List for Another Trump Presidency' (BBC News, 14 November 2024)
<https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do> accessed 14 November 2024.
16 Erwin Chemerinsky and Michele Goodwin, 'Abortion: A Woman’s Private Choice' (2017) 95 Texas Law Review
17 UNGA Res ES-10/21 (27 October 2023) UN Doc A/ES-10/L.23; UNGA Res ES-10/22 (12 December 2023) UN Doc A/ES-10/L.24; UNSC Res 2720 (2024) UN Doc S/RES/2720; UNSC Res 2728 (25 March 2024) UN Doc S/RES/2728; UN General Assembly, Tenth Emergency Special Session, 40th & 41st Meetings (AM & PM), GA/12548, "General Assembly Adopts Resolution Calling for Immediate, Sustained Humanitarian Truce Leading to Cessation of Hostilities between Israel, Hamas" (27 October 2023).
18 International Committee of the Red Cross, Customary International Humanitarian Law (Cambridge University
Press 2005), Rule 1.
19 Jeet Heer, 'The High Cost of Biden’s Policy of Unconditional Support for Israel' (The Nation, 11 October 2024)
<https://www.thenation.com/article/world/biden-israel-policy-disaster/> accessed 16 November 2024.
20 Ron Kampeas, 'What Would Donald Do? Here’s What We Know About How Trump Would Handle Israel and Gaza' (The Times of Israel, 2 March 2024)
<https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-would-donald-do-heres-what-we-know-about-how-trump-would-handle-israel-and-gaza/> accessed 14 November 2024.
21 Human Rights Watch, 'Israeli Forces Conduct Gaza' (19 March 2024)
<https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/19/israeli-forces-conduct-gaza> accessed 31 October 2024.
22 (n 18).
23 Ibid
24 Steve Hendrix, 'Trump's Return Sparks Israeli Right's Push for West Bank Annexation' (The Washington Post, 9
November 2024)
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/09/trump-on-israel-hamas-war-gaza-netanyahu/> accessed 16
November 2024.
25 Michelle L. Price and Meg Kinnard, 'Trump Had as Many as 7 Private Calls with Putin Since Leaving Office, Bob Woodward Writes in New Book' (PBS NewsHour, 8 October 2024)<https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-had-as-many-as-7-private-calls-with-putin-since-leaving-office-bob- woodward-writes-in-new-book> accessed 14 November 2024; Eric Swalwell, 'Russia: Trump & His Team’s Ties' (Representative Eric Swalwell) <https://swalwell.house.gov/issues/russia-trump-his-administration-s-ties> accessed
14 November 2024.
26 (n 19).
27 Ruth Deyermond, 'The Trump Presidency, Russia and Ukraine: Explaining Incoherence' (2023) 99(4)
International Affairs 1595, 1595-1614 <https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiad120> accessed 14 November 2024, abstract.
28 United Nations General Assembly, 'Eleventh Emergency Special Session, 13th & 14th Meetings (AM & PM)' (12
October 2022) UN Doc GA/12458.
29 Maziar Motamedi, 'What’s Donald Trump’s Plan to “End” Russia’s War on Ukraine?' (Al Jazeera, 17 September 2024) <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/whats-donald-trumps-plan-to-end-russias-war-on-ukraine> accessed 14 November 2024.
30 (n 23) p. 1613.
31 House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, 'The Trump-Ukraine Impeachment Inquiry Report' (2019)<https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-Y4_IN8_18-PURL-gpo129303/pdf/GOVPUB-Y4_IN8_18-PURL-gpo129303.pdf> accessed 14 November 2024.
32 'Trump Administration Announces Withdrawal from Four International Agreements' (2019) 113(1) American Journal of International Law 131, 131-141 <https://doi.org/10.1017/ajil.2018.115> accessed 14 November 2024.
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