
Early Sunday morning on December 8th, 2024, the Assad regime collapsed during a major offensive by opposition forces that began on November 27th.[1]
The fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024 has resulted in an uncertain era for Syria and accelerated the European debate on Syrian refugee returns. Throughout Europe and Middle-East countries such as Libanon, debates have sparked about the potential returns of Syrian refugees. Several European countries are already offering Syrian refugees money if they return to their country of origin, a so-called ‘return bonus’.[2] The question remains however whether it is safe for Syrians to return to their home country. For many Syrians, the situation in Syria is too unstable to predict when or if it would be safe, let alone desirable, to return. The Dutch government's consideration of repatriating Syrian asylum seekers by designating certain areas in Syria as 'safe' raises legal and ethical issues. This discussion involves international refugee law (particularly Article 33 of the 1951 Refugee Convention on non-refoulement), human rights obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights, and the balance between national interests and international commitments.
Human Rights and Political Concerns in Syria
It goes without saying that the citizens of Syria under the Assad regime have long been subject to grave human rights violations. After the fall of the Assad regime following the seizure of power by opposition forces, Agnès Callamard, Secretary General of Amnesty International stated:
“After over five decades of brutality and repression, the people of Syria may finally have an opportunity to live free of fear with their rights respected. Under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and before him his father Hafez al-Assad, Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale. This included attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity. This historic opportunity must be now seized and decades of grave human rights violations redressed.Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused human suffering on a vast scale… This historic opportunity must be now seized and decades of grave human rights violations redressed.”[3]
These conditions challenge the assertion that any part of Syria can currently be deemed 'safe' for returnees. In addition to the dangers of human rights violations, it is unclear who will rule over various regions of Syria. Currently, Syria is divided between: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, the most powerful faction and the dominant group in the rebel alliance), Southern Operations Room (which includes both secular and Islamist factions as well as Druze militias), the Syrian National Army, Syrian Democratic Forces (the military force of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which controls the region east of the Euphrates River), IS remnants, and foreign forces (such as Turkey and Israel).[4] The de facto leader of Syria currently is Ahmad al-Sharaa (the leader of HTS), also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Al-Sharaa has indicated that drafting a new constitution could take up to 3 years and organizing elections in Syria could potentially take up to 4 years, reflecting the challenges and complexities in the country's political transition.[5] According to the new Syrian general administration, rebel factions and Syria's de facto head, Ahmed al-Sharaa, have agreed to unite as a single force under the Defense Ministry. The recently announced agreement does not, however, include the Kurdish-led and US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia in northeastern Syria.[6] At the end of December, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir announced that commanders who defected from Bashar al-Assad's army and former rebel organizations would be used to rebuild the ministry.[7] Given these ongoing political divisions and the continued risk of human rights violations, the current situation in Syria remains deeply concerning for potential returnees.

International Refugee Law and Non-Refoulement
The principle of non-refoulement, enshrined in the 1951 Refugee Convention, prohibits returning refugees to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom.[8] This principle is a cornerstone of international refugee protection, obligating states to ensure that returns are safe, voluntary, and dignified.[9] The Netherlands has been a signed party to the Convention since it entered into force in 1951. The Dutch asylum procedure, administered by the Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND), ensures that refugees are assessed for protection under the international standards of the Convention.[10] Designating areas in Syria as 'safe' for returnees requires rigorous assessment to ensure compliance with the principle of non-refoulement. In the beginning of 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) still emphasized that conditions in Syria are not conducive to safe and sustainable returns, citing ongoing hostilities and human rights violations.[11]
However, a "cessation clause" in the 1951 Refugee Convention states that an individual no longer requires international protection after the conditions that led to their refugee status "have ceased to exist." This phrase conveys a high level of assurance regarding the permanence and scope of change. The altered situation must be both fundamental and durable, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR).[12]
(Recent) Dutch Asylum Policies and European Context
The Netherlands grants asylum to individuals at risk of persecution or inhuman treatment in their home countries. However, recent policy shifts indicate a stricter approach towards Syrian refugees. During the summer of 2024, the Dutch Council of State already upheld the right of the Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) to deny residency to Syrian refugees who return to their homeland after seeking asylum, viewing such returns as indicative of the absence of fear of persecution.[13] Since the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad, the Netherlands has temporarily stopped deciding whether to grant asylum to Syrians.[14] The Netherlands is not alone in reconsidering its stance on Syrian asylum seekers. Just days after the fall of the Assad regime, several European countries, including Germany, Austria, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, have suspended decisions on Syrian asylum claims, awaiting clearer assessments of the situation in Syria[15]. The Foreign Affairs Ministry is looking at Syria's security situation in the interim. The Netherlands is doing this in line with other European nations like Germany and Belgium.[16] For now, however, there is no change in status for those who have already been granted asylum in European countries.[17]
Is it safe to return to Syria for Syrian refugees in the Netherlands?
The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs has designated the entire country with a red travel advisory, indicating extreme danger. The Dutch embassy in Syria is closed and unable to provide assistance to citizens in distress.[18] According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are multiple security concerns still ongoing in Syria:
Conflicts: At the moment, it is still unclear how the change of power will play out. It remains unsafe across Syria and the situation is unpredictable.
There are multiple conflicts in Syria. Several armed and terrorist groups are active in the country. There are daily attacks, fighting, airstrikes and bombings. There are regular civilian casualties.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has also further worsened the security situation in Syria. Israel regularly hits targets in Syria.
Terrorism: There is an acute threat of terrorism in Syria. Jihadist networks are active in different parts of the country. Both Syrians and foreigners are targets of attacks.
Laws and customs
Arbitrary arrests: Syrian authorities can arrest people without reason and imprison them (for a long time). Everyone runs this risk, including Dutch citizens. The Dutch government cannot help you.
Syria-Golan border crossing: From Syria, you cannot travel to the Golan. Israel has closed the border.
Lhbtiq+: In Syria, lhbtiq+ people face harsh punishment, and even the death penalty.
Criminality: There is a lot of crime in Syria. There are kidnappings by terrorist groups and criminal gangs.[19]
Other Ministries of Foreign Affairs throughout Europe, including those from Belgium and the United Kingdom, concluded the same red travel advisories.[20]
According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), there are continuing conflicts between different groups in a number of areas, including as Syria's north, south, and northeast. As a result, there is still strife and violence in Syria.[21] The recent developments brought with them new humanitarian needs and widespread displacement, both within and across borders, for a nation and its people who have already endured 13 years of devastating armed conflicts and other crises, where 90% of the population lives below the poverty line, where over 7 million people are internally displaced, and where basic services like food production, water, and health care are functioning at less than half of their capacity. Although individuals have returned to their homes as a result of recent reforms, returning to cities and towns that have been substantially destroyed and contaminated by explosive ordnance is not without its difficulties.[22] Returnees are facing severe housing shortages, infrastructure deficiencies, and restricted employment possibilities, especially in the construction, industrial, and agricultural sectors, in addition to the ambiguity surrounding who will rule various regions of Syrian land.[23]
In its most recent guidelines (December 2024), the UNHCR stated that Syria is not yet safe for return and that repatriation should only take place if societal, humanitarian, and security issues have been resolved. States ought to be well aware of how long that will take.[24]

Conclusion
It is fair to conclude that in light of the ongoing (political) instability, widespread violence, and significant risks to personal safety, it can be strongly advised that displaced Syrians refrain from returning to Syria at this time. International advisories (including the Dutch) uniformly recommend against travel to the country, and humanitarian agencies caution that conditions are not yet suitable for safe repatriation. The proposal to repatriate Syrian asylum seekers from the Netherlands by designating certain areas in Syria as 'safe' is fraught with legal and ethical challenges. International law mandates that returns must be safe, voluntary, and dignified, conditions that are currently questionable given the ongoing human rights violations in Syria. Ethically, protecting individuals from potential harm should take precedence over national policy shifts. Addressing this issue requires a thorough and cautious approach that is guided by current assessments of the Syrian situation and adherence to international human rights responsibilities. Ideally, for both host countries and Syrian refugees, Syria has an inclusive, stable, and democratically elected government. But as Al-Sharaa has indicated, drafting a new constitution could take up to 3 years, and organizing elections in Syria could take up to 4 years. So, whether and when Syria will be safe and desirable for voluntary repatriation remains to be seen.
[1] Staff, A. J. (2024, December 10). How al-Assad’s regime fell: Key moments in the fall of Syria’s ‘tyrant.’ Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/syria
[2] EenVandaag. (2024, December 18). Waarom geven Europese landen Syriërs geld om terug te keren? En andere vragen over “vertrekpremie” voor vluchtelingen beantwoord. https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/waarom-geven-europese-landen-syriers-geld-om-terug-te-keren-en-andere-vragen-over-vertrekpremie-voor-vluchtelingen-beantwoord/
[3] Amnesty International. (2024, December 9). Syria: Historic opportunity to end and redress decades of grave human rights violations under President Assad must be seized. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/12/syria-historic-opportunity-to-end-and-redress-decades-of-grave-human-rights-violations-under-president-assad-must-be-seized/?
[4] Gendler, A. (2024, December 16). Who controls Syria after Assad? Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/a/who-controls-syria-after-assad/7903494.html
[5] Jazeera, Al. “Syria’s de facto leader says holding elections could take up to four years.” Al Jazeera, 29 Dec. 2024, www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/29/syrias-de-facto-leader-says-holding-elections-could-take-up-to-four-years.
[6] Jazeera, A. (2024a, December 24). Syria says ex-rebel groups agree to integrate under Defence Ministry. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/24/syria-says-ex-rebel-groups-agree-to-integrate-under-defence-ministry
[7] Ibid.
[8] Article 33 of the Refugee Convention
[9] OHCHR. (2018). The principle of non-refoulement under international human rights law. https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Issues/Migration/GlobalCompactMigration/ThePrincipleNon-RefoulementUnderInternationalHumanRightsLaw.pdf
[10] Ministerie van Justitie en Veiligheid. (2023, September 14). Asylum procedure. Asylum Policy | Government.nl. https://www.government.nl/topics/asylum-policy/asylum-procedure
[11] Syrian returnees subjected to “Gross human rights violations and abuses”, UN report details | Ohchr. (n.d.). https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/02/syrian-returnees-subjected-gross-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-un
[12] Frelick, B. (2024, December 12). As many Syrian refugees return home, others cannot. Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/10/many-syrian-refugees-return-home-others-cannot
[13] Taim, M. (n.d.). Syrian refugees in the Netherlands to face stricter asylum rules. The New Arab. https://www.newarab.com/features/syrian-refugees-netherlands-face-stricter-asylum-rules
[14] VluchtelingenWerk. (2024, December 30). Dutch IND is not deciding on asylum applications of Syrians for now. RefugeeHelp. https://www.refugeehelp.nl/en/status-holder/news/100480-the-netherlands-does-not-decide-on-asylum-applications-of-syrians-for-now
[15] France 24. (2024, December 9). European countries suspend Syrian asylum decisions after Assad’s Fall. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241209-european-countries-suspend-syrian-asylum-decisions-after-assad-s-fall
[16] Ibid.
[17] Shankar, P. (2024, December 10). Why is Europe pausing Syrian asylum claims after al-Assad’s fall? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/why-is-europe-pausing-syrian-asylum-claims-after-al-assads-fall
[18] Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken. (2024, December 10). Reisadvies Syrië. https://www.nederlandwereldwijd.nl/reisadvies/syrie
[19] Ibid.
[20] Laatste update in Syrië. FOD Buitenlandse Zaken - Buitenlandse Handel en Ontwikkelingssamenwerking. (n.d.). https://diplomatie.belgium.be/nl/landen/syrie/reizen-naar-syrie-reisadvies/laatste-update-syrie
[21] Frequently asked questions on the ICRC’s work in Syria. (2025, January 1). International Committee of the Red Cross. https://www.icrc.org/en/article/frequently-asked-questions-icrcs-work-syria
[22] Syria Operational Update: ICRC work in Syria (27 November - 18 December 2024). (2025, January 4). International Committee of the Red Cross. https://www.icrc.org/en/article/syria-operational-update-icrc-work-syria-27-november-18-december-2024
[23] Samuel Davidoff-Gore, S. F. (2024, December 19). The complicated reality of Syrians’ return. migrationpolicy.org. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/post-assad-returns-syria
[24] Position on returns to the Syrian Arab Republic. Refworld. (2024, December 1). https://www.refworld.org/policy/countrypos/unhcr/2024/en/149254
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